In trading in Asia, oil prices have renewed their 13-month highs again. WTI rose above $ 63, while Brent is trading above $ 66. Both instruments remain upwardly inclined.
The oil market is supported by a number of fundamental factors. First, investors continue to play out reports that it will take at least 2 weeks to restore oil production and processing in Texas. According to EIA, the decline in production amid worsening weather conditions amounted to about 1 million barrels, which is 10% of the total production in the United States.
Second, the commodity sector is supported by the dynamics of the movement of world stock indices. Oil is a risky asset and, as a rule, has a direct correlation with the dynamics of the movement of major indices. Investors' appetite for risk is growing amid an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the world and statements by the head of the Federal Reserve that the US will maintain a stimulating monetary policy for a long time.
Another factor supporting oil and other commodity assets is the dynamics of the dollar. The dollar index is declining today towards 3-year lows. Oil is getting cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Next week, investors will gradually turn their attention to the OPEC + meeting, which is scheduled for March 4. OPEC + countries may ease restrictions on production amid skyrocketing energy prices.
On the chart, the price has consolidated above 63.00 and continues to move towards the next target at 64.00.
Main scenario - growth to 64.00
Alternative scenario - decline from current levels to 62.90 and renewed upward movement.
The current fundamental outlook is positive. We consider longs on a pullback to 62.90.
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