The EUR / USD pair continues to move down on Friday and is now trading below 1.20. The decline is taking place against the background of the continuing strengthening of the dollar across the entire spectrum of the market. Today, the dollar index renewed its 3-month high of trading.
A new wave of growth in the US currency was triggered by the latest statements from the Fed, who, contrary to market expectations, do not see a threat in the growing yields on US government bonds. Yesterday Jerome Powell refrained from signals about the intention of the Fed to buy more long-term government bonds in order to contain the growth of their yields. Similar statements to Powell's opinion were made earlier by other representatives of the FRS.
Today the central event of the day will be the report on the US labor market. It is expected that in February the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector will increase from 49 thousand to 182 thousand, and the unemployment rate will remain at around 6.3%. The further vector of movement of the currency pair will be determined by the size of deviations of the actual values from the forecast data.
The chart is still dominated by bearish signals. All signals indicate a continuation of the downward movement and a decline in quotations below the level of 1.1950.
The main scenario is a decline below 1.1950
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of intraday resistance at 1.2000 and growth towards the levels of 1.2050 and 1.2090.
The current fundamental background is negative. We consider shorts on a pullback to levels 1.2050 and 1.2090.
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