Brent and WTI crude prices are down nearly by 1% today following the publication of the API reserves report. According to the data presented, the level of reserves for the reporting week increased by almost 13 million barrels. This is the largest increase in this indicator since April 2020, when the stock level began to rise sharply due to the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additional pressure on the entire commodity sector today is exerted by the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate. The dollar index rose by 0.3%. Commodity assets have become more expensive for many investors.
Later in the US will be published weekly data from the EIA on the dynamics of stocks of oil and petroleum products. It is expected that the level of oil reserves for the week rose by 0.8 million barrels. The published API report significantly increases the likelihood that actual values will be significantly higher than predicted values.
On the chart, the price dropped below 64.00. This is a negative signal. The priority now is the scenario with the continuation of the medium-term decline in quotations. Within the day, we can expect a correctional growth in the area of the 65.00 mark.
The main scenario is an increase to 65.00 and a downward reversal.
An alternative scenario is a decline to 62.60 from current levels.
The current fundamental background is moderately negative. We consider shorts from the levels 65.00 and 66.00.
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