During the Asian trading session on Monday, oil prices showed a moderate upward trend in response to the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from China and the announcement of the NBS.
The National Bureau of Statistics noted the strengthening of positive factors in the economy, which will contribute to the rapid recovery of the economy at the end of the 1st quarter of this year in comparison with the crisis year 2020. Investors hope that the accelerated economic recovery in China, the world's largest energy consumer, will improve the outlook for oil demand.
The market could also be supported by Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia cut oil supplies by 15% in March for 4 large consumers in North Asia. The reduction in supplies is taking place within the framework of the agreements reached at the last OPEC + meeting.
The dynamics of the dollar movement (dollar index + 0.16%) and reports on the recovery of production and oil refining in the USA have a restraining effect on the market today.
On the chart, buyers are trying to break through the resistance at 66.20. Unsuccessful so far. A scenario with the development of a moderate downward movement is seen as more probable today.
The main scenario is a breakdown of the support at 62.50 and a decline in the direction of 63.40.
An alternative scenario is a breakdown of the resistance at 66.20 and an increase to 67.40.
The current fundamental background is neutral. We consider shorts with very moderate risks from the level of 66.20.
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