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GBP / USD pair today may fall below 1.38

The GBP / USD pair is down more than 0.4% today amid statements by the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey and a moderate strengthening of the dollar index.

The head of the Bank of England said today that the regulator will continue the asset repurchase program in 2021. He also noted that in the 1st quarter, most likely, we will see a decrease in GDP by 4% compared to 2020 and by 12% compared to the 1st quarter of 2019.

Andrew Bailey does not rule out a short-term rise in inflation in response to large-scale stimulus measures, but in the long term, the consumer price index is likely to remain below 2%. Bailey's comments on inflation indicate that the regulator is likely to continue to implement soft monetary policy for a long time to come.

In the afternoon, the market will focus on news from the US. The February retail sales report is expected to be released. Experts predict a decline in key indicators.

The flat continues on the chart in the range of 1.3795-1.3990. Today a bearish wave is developing in the direction of the lower border of the marked channel.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3990, 1.4050, 1.4100;
  • Support levels: 1.3795, 1.3780, 1.3590.

The main scenario is a decline to 1.3795.

Alternative option - growth from current levels

The current fundamental background is neutral. We consider shorts on a pullback to 1.3865.

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