In Asia, the EUR / USD pair was trading slightly lower. At the beginning of the European trading session, buyers came to the market again. Investors continue to play back the data of macroeconomic statistics from the US and the latest statements from the Fed.
The dollar reacted very calmly yesterday to the publication of strong macroeconomic data, which indicate a recovery in the economy and an improvement in the situation on the labor market. But investors are in no rush to buy US currency after massive verbal interventions by the Fed. This week, the regulator once again gave the market a signal that it does not intend to change monetary policy in the long term. Therefore, in the current situation, investors continue to give preference to the euro and other riskier assets.
At the same time, fundamentally, the European currency remains very vulnerable in the face of a difficult epidemiological situation in the EU and low rates of economic recovery. Obviously, over the long haul, the dollar looks like a more interesting investment asset as the US economy is showing good signs of recovery from the crisis. After the Fed's verbal interventions, investors who were betting on rapid inflation and earlier withdrawal of stimulus have quieted down, but this may change in the coming months.
It is obvious that the rapid recovery in employment and rising inflationary pressures will increase the pressure on the Fed towards raising rates and curtailing the asset purchase program. Therefore, in the long term, the EUR / USD pair is still dominated by downside risks.
The economic calendar today will focus on March data on CPI in the EU and data on the US construction sector.
A local correction from the resistance level 1.1990 is developing on the chart. Buyers continue to hold the price above the level of 1.1950, therefore, the scenario with the development of an upward movement and the growth of quotations above 1.1990 remains a priority.
The main scenario is growth above 1.1990.
An alternative scenario is a decline below 1.1950 and a pullback to 1.1930.
The current fundamental background is moderately positive. We are considering longs from the level of 1.1955.
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