In Asia, the EUR / USD pair held in the green trading zone amid a weakening dollar.
The American currency remains under pressure due to the downward dynamics of the US Treasury yield and the increased risk appetite of investors. Today, the yield on 10-year bonds is near a 10-day low, and stock indices are showing positive dynamics. Considering the above, investor interest in the dollar is declining.
The central event of the day will be the ECB meeting. It is widely expected that the regulator will keep the key parameters of monetary policy unchanged. The market will focus on the final press conference of the ECB. Here one should not exclude surprises, as it was yesterday at the press conference of the Bank of Canada. According to a number of media reports, contradictions are growing between the leaders of the Central Banks of the eurozone countries regarding the further directions of adjusting monetary policy.
Therefore, Christine Lagarde can hint about possible changes in monetary policy at the July meeting. Such statements can provide significant support for the European currency.
If the ECB sticks to a softer and more cautious tone of statements, the European currency may come under pressure.
In the US today, it is worth paying attention to the publication of weekly data on the labor market, as well as statistics on sales in the secondary housing market for March.
The chart is dominated by bullish signals. Buyers were able to defend the level of 1.2010 yesterday and now the price is heading towards the local resistance at 1.2070. If this level is broken today, the upward movement may continue. The price may rise above 1.2100 today.
The main scenario is an increase to 1.2100 from current levels.
An alternative scenario is a rollback to 1.2010 and renewed upward movement.
The current fundamental background is neutral. We consider longs from levels of 1.2025 and 1.2010
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